Forecast standard vs dual-stage results-based billing using lagged outcomes, cashflow timing, and P&L.
Core forecast relationship: Paid Outcomes(t+Lag) = Accepted(t) × SR. Accepted is your “inventory”, SR encodes process quality, and Lag makes the forecast time-realistic.
Daily cashflow runs from this date. Targets apply to the first N months; a tail month is added automatically for lagged outcomes.
Set N=3 to mirror a quarter of targets.
Dual: TP1 fee on Accepted + TP2 on paid outcomes.
Standard: TP2 only (TP1 excluded from revenue + cashflow).
If “No”, Touchpoint 2 (outcome-based revenue) is excluded.
Option A uses each offer’s Payout / Outcome. Option B uses Commission / Outcome × Revenue Share%.
Example: 0.25 = 25% share of commission (paid per outcome).
Weekly rule: Sunday pays 7× daily fee (no partial-week true-up).
| Month | Accepted target | Days | Accepted/day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets Total | — | — | — |
A tail month (no targets) is automatically included to capture lagged outcomes from the final target month.
| Offer / Product | Payout / Outcome | Commission / Outcome | Effective payout | Reference volume | Mix% (Accepted) | SR override (optional) | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mix sum | — | (must be 100%) | ||||||
| Blended effective payout / outcome | — | |||||||
| Blended SR (if overrides enabled) | — |
Blended SR: Σ(mix × (override if present else base SR)). Used only if “Use SR overrides” = Yes.
| Month | Accepted target | Fetched required | Paid outcomes | Rev: TP1 fees | Rev: TP2 payouts | Total revenue | Media spend | Non-media variable costs | Fixed overhead | Profit | Profit % |
|---|
| Feasibility quick checks | |
|---|---|
| Blended effective payout (per paid outcome) | |
| Expected outcome revenue per Accepted (payout × SR) | |
| Media cost per Accepted (CPL / AR) | |
| Minimum TP1 fee to break even on media (per Accepted) |
| RBB billing comparison | Standard RBB (TP2 only) | Dual billing (TP1 + TP2) |
|---|---|---|
| TP1 revenue | — | — |
| TP2 revenue | — | — |
| Total revenue | — | — |
| Total costs | — | — |
| Profit | — | — |
| Profit % | — | — |
| Peak funding required | — | — |
Comparison uses the current TP2 commercial selection (Option A or B) and the same AR/SR/Lag/cost inputs.
| Lag (days) | SR used | Blended effective payout |
|---|
| Month | Accepted (in month) | Paid outcomes realized (lagged, in month) | Outcome payout (in month) | TP1 fee revenue (in month) | Media spend (in month) | Cash profit proxy (in month) |
|---|
Lag-realised outcomes are computed from the daily schedule exactly like the Daily Cashflow tab.
Breaks a month’s Accepted target into offer-level volumes and revenue.
| Offer / Product | Mix% | Accepted | SR used | Outcomes | Effective payout/Outcome | TP2 revenue | TP1 revenue (allocated) | Total revenue |
|---|
Used to compute peak funding required.
Calculated from the cumulative cash curve.
| Date | Month | Accepted/day | Fetched/day | Forecast outcomes/day (lagged) | TP1 cash-in | TP2 cash-in | Media spend | Non-media var | Fixed overhead | Net cashflow | Cumulative cash |
|---|
Display is capped for performance. Export JSON to share scenarios.
Accrual P&L by month and total, aligned to the dual-stage logic.
| Month | Accepted | Fetched | Paid outcomes | TP1 Rev | TP2 Rev | Total Rev | Media | Variable | Fixed | Profit | Profit % |
|---|
Targets define Accepted inventory (what you paid to create). SR encodes conversion quality. Lag encodes time-to-cash. Costs stay on the correct bases.
Keep the same underlying logic, but solve for deal terms: required CPL / TP1 fee / SR to hit a target profit or funding constraint. Defaults preserve the original model behavior.
Uses accrual profit on the Targets Total row.
Optional. If set, solver targets Profit % instead of Profit value.
Solves within feasible bounds and shows if impossible.
Optional. Adds a cash constraint using the Daily Cashflow schedule.
Distribution spreads outcomes across days after lag.
Only used when Lag mode = distribution.
Keeps Sunday rule but adjusts last day of month.
| Lag distribution (day offset) | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Sum | — | Must equal 100% when enabled |
Default is 100% on day 0 (equivalent to single-lag behavior).
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Solved value | — |
| Profit (Targets Total) | — |
| Profit % | — |
| Peak funding required | — |
| Status | — |
Save multiple scenarios locally (per device) and compare key outputs side-by-side.
Select a scenario to load it into the app.
Shows KPI differences to stress-test assumptions.
| KPI | Current | Compare | Δ |
|---|
Mix integrity + unit economics + funding pressure.
What the unit economics imply for the deal terms.